US economy slowing but not in danger of recession

US economy slowing but not in danger of recession

Illustration: Luo Xuan/GT Will the US enter a recession in 2020, a US presidential election year, or will its economy only slow further without entering actual recession? That is the discussion among the overwhelming majority of US economists. To illustrate this, Bloomberg, the most important US financial communications network, asked on October 5, "Is the US Headed for a Recession?" Its analysis began, "Through all the noise around US data this week, a clear signal is emerging: The world’s biggest economy is slowing down. The question now is, how badly?" This US reality, and serious US economic analysis, is so different from the Trump administration’s propaganda that it is necessary to analyze the real facts. This author considers that there is a risk of recession for the US economy in 2020, but it is more likely that it will slow without entering recession – technically defined as two successive quarters of negative growth. However, as 2020 is a presidential election year, this economic slowdown puts major political pressure on US President Donald Trump. The slowdown of the US economy is clear. During the last three years, the US has passed through a normal upturn and now a downturn of the US business cycle. The effects of this cycle were much more powerful than the Trump administration’s policy measures predicted. Trump’s election in 2016 was greatly aided by the US economy’s poor performance that year. As Trump was elected at the end cycle, it then naturally turned upward. The upturn […]

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