The 2019 Benchmark Revision shows that the ex-Census-hires job streak ended twelve months ago, and current indications are the next annual benchmark revision will show that it has faltered since. We anticipate another dramatic revision in early 2021 for the period early 2019 – early 2020.
President Donald Trump has always exaggerated the strength of his jobs record, claiming to have brought about an unprecedented hiring boom when, in fact, payrolls have been growing at a somewhat slower pace than they had been during Barack Obama’s final years in office. But it turns out, the reality of it was even weaker than the official data let on. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest batch of employment numbers, along with its annual benchmark revisions adjusting its estimates from prior months. Before, the government believed that the U.S. had added 223,000 jobs per month in 2018, the year that the GOP’s tax cuts and new, higher spending levels took effect. It has now lowered that estimate to 193,000 per month, a significant drop. With today’s benchmark revision, there was still a modest increase in payroll growth in 2018 over 2017. The 2019 average was essentially unchanged. Job growth has been remarkably steady for the past four years. pic.twitter.com/I44FdiLTVp — Jed Kolko (@JedKolko) February 7, 2020 Here’s how this changes the story of the past few years. Based on the old numbers, it looked like Trump had inherited a steady economy but gave hiring a boost in 2018 through some deficit-fueled stimulus. Based on the new numbers, it looks like he inherited a steadily growing economy and didn’t do much at all. Trump’s deficits likely juiced employment growth a bit, while his trade war likely undercut it. (The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes probably […]