The Trump Recession is Here
Where Trump Recession was a warning starting as early as late 2018 and continuing throughout much of last year, it then briefly went away as several nations’ Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs) turned up in a variably pronounced and pervasive, but as can now be seen, only briefly persistent manner. One of the countries whose LEIs turned up, kind of, was the United States.
But the Trump Slump weakened global economy, of which the United States is a part, has finally met its match: a highly contagious and deadly new coronavirus, and has morphed into outright recession.
The Trump recession.
This recession is hitting fast and furious, so fast that it’s going to be like most Americans aren’t even going to know what hit them. It’s hitting so fast, that even many, many professional economists have gone from forecasts of 1%, 2%, or even higher US GDP growth this quarter and next, to just under one, to just above zero, to zero, and now, most economists that have felt compelled to readjust once again tonight, and are calling for recession.
They may not use the phrase Trump Recession but let’s not be coy here, Trump lied, and people died. Trump disbanded our nation’s pandemic response team. Trump withheld testing to keep the numbers of infected low to benefit him, in his mind, in the upcoming election. Trump gave massive tax breaks to the ultra rich and shit on the poor, weakening already barely working social safety nets. And now, with the Trump Recession hitting, it’s clear who owns it. The man who never accepts one iota of blame.
This Trump Recession is Coming on Fast and Furious
Whether or not Trump recession becomes a trending hashtag again #TrumpRecession is irrelevant. Twitter does not define recessions. The NBER, the National Bureau of Economic Research, does. And by their definition, the writing is on the wall.
On March 9th, just mere six days ago, world renown economics blogger Bill McBride of Calculated Risk, went on “Recession Watch.” Six. Days. Ago.
The last time Bill McBride went on Recession Watch was late 2006, roughly a full year, twelve months, 365 days, before the 2007-09 US recession began.
And tonight, just six days after going on Recession Watch, McBride has called recession as well, writing just a little bit ago that the start date is the current month, March, 2020.
Bill McBride writes:
…Goldman Sachs currently thinks the recovery will be in Q3 and be fairly rapid. I think the timing is unknown, and the recovery will probably be tepid at first – and then pickup…
With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants – combined with the sluggish government response, both on testing and fiscal stimulus – my view is the US economy in now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2 (as Goldman Sachs is forecasting). The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic, and that is unknown at this time. Unfortunately the usual leading indicators aren’t useful with this type of event […]