The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Down in January

Dshort Big Four Recession Indicators
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Note : This commentary has been updated to incorporate the January data for Industrial Production. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are: Nonfarm Employment Industrial Production Real Retail Sales Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) The Latest Indicator Data Today’s report on Industrial Production for January shows a -0.31% decrease month-over-month, which was worse than the consensus of -0.2%. The year-over-year change is -0.83%, up from last month’s YoY decrease.  […]

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