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Trade

A simple chart shows the winners and losers from Trump's trade war with China

A simple chart shows the winners and losers from Trump’s trade war with China

January 26, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

As the trade conflict between the US and China rumbles on, winners and losers are starting to emerge from the conflict which has seen the […]

Davos 2019: 10 things we learned at the World Economic Forum

Davos 2019: 10 things we learned at the World Economic Forum

January 26, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

The first big international gathering of the year is the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos . […]

2019 Forecast: Industry growth slows as business horizon clouds

2019 Forecast: Industry growth slows as business horizon clouds

January 18, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

Momentum is expected to slow in response to a clouding business and political horizon as the boating industry anticipates its eighth consecutive year of single-digit […]

Trump is about to clobber the auto industry

Trump is about to clobber the auto industry

January 18, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

Investors have been edgy about President Trump’s trade dispute with China. But there’s another trade threat that’s going to flare soon: The possibility of new […]

Former China lead at IMF: U.S. will reach cursory China deal

Former China lead at IMF: U.S. will reach cursory China deal

January 18, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

With help from Adam Behsudi, Doug Palmer, Megan Cassella and Alex Panetta Editor’s Note: This edition of Morning Trade is published weekdays at 10 a.m. […]

‘Goldilocks Economy’ References Are Doomed as the Storms Set In

January 17, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

(Bloomberg) — Follow the latest global economic news and analysis @economics. Trade-war side effects and cyclical weakness are tangled up in ugly economic data that […]

The risks of a recession are rising — and Trump might be to blame

The risks of a recession are rising — and Trump might be to blame

January 17, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

A rally by federal employees and supporters in front of the Statehouse in Boston calls for an end of the partial shutdown of the federal […]

CEO Stock Trump Recession 2019

CEOs fear a recession more than anything else in 2019

January 17, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

It’s not Brexit, terrorism, or even climate change that keeps CEOs awake at night. Instead, recession is the primary concern for 1,400 global business leaders […]

Why US CEOs are Naive to Ignore Trade War & Recession Risks

Why US CEOs are Naive to Ignore Trade War & Recession Risks

January 17, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

US business leaders seem to be ignoring the looming risks of the US-China trade war and a potential recession. | Source: Shutterstock Global CEOs, especially […]

Prolonged Shutdown Raises Recession Risk: ETFs to Consider

Prolonged Shutdown Raises Recession Risk: ETFs to Consider

January 17, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

With the government shutdown now in its fourth week (the longest ever) and 800,000 federal workers on furlough, the risk of recession has increased significantly. […]

Recession threat shows folly of shutdown

Recession threat shows folly of shutdown

January 17, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

Security lines at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta stretch more than an hour long amid the partial federal shutdown. (AP) The federal government shutdown, now […]

Weekend Reading: Trump To Tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Gundlach Says Recession Comming

Weekend Reading: Trump To Tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Gundlach Says Recession Comming

January 17, 2019 RealTrumpSlump 0

Over the weekend, there is lots to read. Whether it be Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times or Bloomberg. Each week we […]

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RSS Calculated Risk Regular Updates

  • Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Sharply Year-over-year due to Timing of Thanksgiving December 8, 2019
    Note: Due to the timing of Thanksgiving, the occupancy rate was down sharply YoY last week. The rate was up sharply in the previous report.From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 30 Novemberhe U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 24-30 November 2019, […]
  • Schedule for Week of December 8, 2019 December 7, 2019
    The key economic reports this week are November CPI and Retail Sales.The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.----- Monday, Dec 9th -----No major economic releases scheduled.----- Tuesday, Dec 10th -----6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November.----- Wednesday, Dec 11th -----7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will […]
  • AAR: November Rail Carloads down 7.5% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.4% YoY December 6, 2019
    From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Rail traffic continues to struggle because U.S. manufacturing is soft, trade disputes and the uncertainty they entail are ongoing, and economic growth abroad isn’t what it could be....In November 2019, total U.S. rail carloads were down 7.5% and total […]
  • Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up 3% YoY, Inventory down 4% YoY December 6, 2019
    This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices stay the same for two months, still up from last year GLVAR housing statistics for […]
  • Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.6% to 2.0% December 6, 2019
    From Goldman Sachs: [W]e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar) [Dec 5 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Merrill Lynch This week, our ... 4Q GDP tracking estimate edged down by 0.1pp to 1.6% on weaker than expected residential spend in Oct. [Dec 6 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York […]
  • Comments on November Employment Report December 6, 2019
    The headline jobs number at 266 thousand for November was above consensus expectations of 180 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 41 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%.Earlier: November Employment Report: 266,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment RateIn November, the year-over-year employment change was 2.204 million jobs including Census hires.Seasonal Retail […]

RSS Business Cycle Updates From ECRI

  • Weekly Leading Index Rises December 6, 2019
    Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 147.8 while the growth rate increased to 2.4%.                      ECRI has long determined business […]
  • U.S. Business Investment Outlook December 4, 2019
    While corporate tax rate cuts can provide a short-term boost, cyclical forces are the true drivers of investment growth. This report shares cyclical updates to the key determinants of investment growth with knock-on effects for business spending and economic growth in the coming months.Covered in this report: - The current cyclical conditions dictating investment growth- […]
  • Weekly Leading Index Edges Down November 27, 2019
    Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 146.8 as the growth rate rose to 1.7%.                      ECRI has long determined […]
  • Weekly Leading Index Rises November 22, 2019
    Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 147.0 as the growth rate increased to 1.1%.                      ECRI has long determined business […]
  • Update on Recession Risk and Rates November 20, 2019
    Even as recession fears in the markets evaporate our analysis shows that recession risks remain active.This report includes:- Review of the employment cycle, including an update to our Cyclical Labor Conditions Index- Review of recent developments in market and non-market inputs to our array of leading indexes- Cyclical analysis of Fed rate expectationsReview our recent […]
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