Recession warnings pose 2020 threat to Trump

Recession warnings pose 2020 threat to Trump

Recession warnings pose 2020 threat to Trump Fears that a recession could hit the U.S. next year are growing on Wall Street, creating a potential headache for President Trump as he seeks to highlight the economy in his bid for a second term. Economists at Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in the past few days all raised concerns that a recession between now and next year’s elections is becoming more likely. And they all pointed the finger of blame at Trump’s trade policy. “I think recession is increasingly likely,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said on Monday. “I’d put the odds at just over even for a recession between now and the end of 2020, assuming the president follows through on his tariff threats.” His remarks came a day after Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said the trade war with China is likely to hurt U.S. growth more than previously forecast. “Fears that the trade war will trigger a recession are growing,” he said in a research note . Two days earlier, Bank of America economists said the chances of a recession had risen from 20 percent to about 33 percent, adding that "our model likely does not fully capture the threat of US-China trade tensions spiraling into a more severe trade war, which we view as the biggest downside risk for the US economy.” “We are worried,” they wrote in their analysis. By many measures the Trump economy is booming. Unemployment […]

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