All three major slowdown/recession composite leading indexes TrumpSlump.World considers most worthy of tracking are now flashing Orange.
Both of the U.S.-centric WLIs (RecessionAlert and ECRI), as well as the global OECD CLI are all well below zero. The last time this happened, back in 2015, they turned around without a US or Global Recession, but not in time to give the incumbent Dems much reprieve in the 2016 elections from many a discontent unhappy voter.
The odds of a timely turnaround this time are much lower, and Republicans could be holding a very ugly economic bag heading into 2020. Mistakes were made, and now the ability to navigate a prolonged, protracted and pervasive period of economic weakness without falling into outright recession is muted at best.
What mistakes, you may ask?
Well, it is no secret that the Republicans passed, “through the dark of night and speed of light,” a give-away tax bill for billionaires and corporations, with merely a teensy-weensy portion of the entire billed targeted to help the average tax-paying individual. And at that, those tweaks were almost entirely designed just to give the economy a ‘feel good’ boost heading to the 2018 midterm elections, which no doubt occurred, but that is now starting to wane. And now a hangover follows.
Another short-term economic boost but with medium to potentially long-term and lasting damage has been the Trump Trade War. With the impacts of real and threatened import and export tariffs looming and realized, companies went on a spending spree ahead of implementation time in order to lock in relatively lower prices. Related economic activity went up, and now, with more product and supplies as would have otherwise been warranted, purchases and economic activities will have to compensate on the downside.
There is no doubt that a now serious window of vulnerability to any additional economic shocks that could come from almost any direction… known or unknown.. from such a chaotic and manic administration as the Trump Administration is. And this is not to mention how our enemies and frienemies and even friends may act during this time.
Keep abreast of these top leading economic indicators with us as we track updates from RecessionAlert, ECRI and OECD here: Trump Recession Indicators