How The Trade War Ceasefire Will Impact The Energy Industry

How The Trade War Ceasefire Will Impact The Energy Industry
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Although the focus of those in the oil markets has been focused on the tensions between Iran and the U.S. in recent days, with many now thinking that the worst of this impasse has now passed (it has not), primary focus is now set to return to the previous major market driver: the U.S.-China trade war. As U.S. President Donald Trump noted recently in a conversation with China’s Vice Premier, Liu He: “Every time there’s a little bad [trade war] news, the market would go down incredibly. Every time there was a little bit of good news, the market would go up incredibly. And yet, other news that was also very big, the market just didn’t really care. They just seemed to care about the deal with [the] USA and China, and that’s okay with me.” This Wednesday, the U.S. and China are set to sign a ‘Phase 1’ deal that theoretically brings to an end 18 months of trade warfare but the reality may be somewhat different. The siging of the Phase 1 deal will certainly put at least a temporary floor in the increasingly fractious relationship between the U.S. and China and buying some time is what both sides want. From Trump’s perspective, de-escalating the trade war with China, at least to the extent that it is no longer perceived to be meaningfully damaging U.S. economic growth is good for his popularity ratings ahead of this year’s Presidential Election. Since World War I, the sitting U.S. president […]

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