Editorials | Trump Slump .World

Stephen Roach: Coronavirus Fallout Could Trigger Global Recession

China’s Debt Defaults Are Picking Up Again

February 17, 2020 RealTrumpSlump 0

Investors have blindly, willfully, gleefully believed for far too long that, for some reason, any reason, there-must-be-a-reason, state-backing-reasons, Chinese companies are just unable to go […]

Live Coronavirus Updates

February 14, 2020 RealTrumpSlump 0

~ SPECIAL FEATURE ~ CORONAVIRUS LIVE UPDATES COVID-19 is the official name of the novel coronavirus pandemic threat now roiling China and spilling over to […]

Major Leading Indexes Flashing Orange

December 30, 2018 RealTrumpSlump 0

All three major slowdown/recession composite leading indexes TrumpSlump.World considers most worthy of tracking are now flashing Orange. Both of the U.S.-centric WLIs (RecessionAlert and ECRI), […]

Friday: CPI, Markets Closed for Good Friday April 10, 2020
Note: Inflation is not a concern with the COVID-19.Friday:• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% decrease in CPI, and a 0.1% increase in core CPI.
April 9 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results April 9, 2020
Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country. My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve. Some scientists believe we need around 800,000 tests per day.Note: I read that Germany is doing more than 50,000 tests per […]
University of Michigan: Largest Decline on Record for Consumer Sentiment April 9, 2020
From the University of Michigan: Preliminary Results for April 2020 Consumer sentiment plunged 18.1 Index-points in early April, the largest monthly decline ever recorded. When combined with last month's decline, the two-month drop of 30.0 Index-points was 50% larger than the prior record. Of the two Index components, the Current Conditions Index plunged by 31.3 […]
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 68.5% Year-over-year to All Time Record Low April 9, 2020
From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 4 April Reflecting the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. hotel industry reported significant year-over-year declines in the three key performance metrics during the week of 29 March through 4 April 2020, according to data from STR.In comparison with the week of 31 March […]
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 6,606,000 April 9, 2020
The DOL reported:In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,606,000, a decrease of 261,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 219,000 from 6,648,000 to 6,867,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,265,500, an increase of 1,598,750 from the previous week's […]
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI April 8, 2020
CR Note: The focus this week will be on weekly unemployment claims, and the consensus is probably low. Once weekly claims decline from these stratospheric levels, the focus will shift to continued claims.Thursday:• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 5.000 million initial claims, down […]

Weekly Leading Index Decreases April 9, 2020
Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index decreased to 105.0 while the growth rate dropped to a record low of -37.2%. ECRI has long […]
Inflation Dynamics Amid Recession April 8, 2020
While the trigger for this recession is unprecedented, our understanding of the cyclical drivers of inflation provides a roadmap for the future direction of inflation pressures.Included in this report:-- Analysis of ECRI's inflation indexes, including the latest readings from the Weekly U.S. Future Inflation Gauge-- Insights into inflation cycle and business cycle dynamics-- Implications of […]
A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession April 4, 2020
With the coronavirus pandemic slamming the economy into a severe recession, it’s natural to try to see the light at the end of the tunnel – and imagine the shape of the recovery. Yet, that revival will depend critically on the nature and intensity of this recession.A recession’s severity is measured by its depth, diffusion […]