Category: Editorials | Trump Slump World

Major Leading Indexes Flashing Orange

December 30, 2018 RealTrumpSlump 0

All three major slowdown/recession composite leading indexes TrumpSlump.World considers most worthy of tracking are now flashing Orange. Both of the U.S.-centric WLIs (RecessionAlert and ECRI), […]

Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales up 18.5% YoY, Active Inventory Down 31.2% YoY January 19, 2020
This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):1) Overall sales were at 7,585 in December, up from 6,974 in November, and up from 6,403 in December 2018. Sales were up 8.8%% from November […]
Schedule for Week of January 19, 2020 January 18, 2020
The key report scheduled for this week is December Existing Home sales.For manufacturing, the January Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey will be released.----- Monday, Jan 20th -----All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day----- Tuesday, Jan 21st -----No major economic releases scheduled.----- Wednesday, Jan 22nd -----7:00 AM ET: The […]
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December January 17, 2020
From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.40 million in December, up 0.9% from November’s preliminary pace and up 8.0% from last December’s weak […]
CAR on California December Housing: Sales up 7.4% YoY, Inventory down 26.5%, Lowest Inventory in "nearly seven years" January 17, 2020
The CAR reported: Low interest rates boost housing market in second half of year as home prices post strong gains in December, C.A.R. reportsClosed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 398,880 units in December, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local […]
Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.0% January 17, 2020
From Merrill Lynch On balance retail sales cut our 4Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 2.0% qoq saar. [Jan 17 estimate]emphasis addedFrom the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.2% for 2019:Q4 and 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 17 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP […]
Comments on December Housing Starts January 17, 2020
Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.608 Million Annual Rate in DecemberTotal housing starts in December were well above expectations and revisions to prior months were positive. The housing starts report showed starts were up 16.9% in December compared to November, and starts were up 40.8% year-over-year compared to December 2018.These were blow out numbers! This […]

Weekly Leading Index Rises January 17, 2020
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 150.6 while the growth rate increased to 4.4%. ECRI has long determined business […]
Global Industrial Growth Supports Commodities January 16, 2020
On mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI’s Achuthan speaks with CNBC’s Trading Nation about the cyclical upturn in industrial commodity inflation. More details here:Cyclical upturn in industrial commodity inflation. Details here: https://t.co/glnappAkqy pic.twitter.com/xABkLTTC3r— Lakshman Achuthan January 16, 2020Review our recent real-time track record.For information on our profess...
Upside for Industrial Commodity Inflation January 16, 2020
On mobile, click here to view video interview.Industrial commodity price inflation, which is still pretty beaten down, is starting a cyclical upturn.We know this because we’re tracking cycles in global industrial growth, which is a key driver of industrial commodity prices.In Sept. 2019 we alerted clients: “nascent upturns in ECRI’s forward looking indicators of global […]
Cutting Through the China Noise January 15, 2020
A review of the cyclical shifts underway in China helps to cut through the noise in the data and keep economic risks in perspective.Included in this report: - Chinese Leading Industrial Production Index- Chinese Leading Exports Index- Update to ECRI's China “rust belt” analysis- Chinese Alternative Future Inflation Gauge updateReview our recent real-time track record.For […]
Interview on Jobs and Markets January 13, 2020
First, the good news! We’ve had 10 straight years of job gains with the 2010s seeing over 22 million jobs added – the most of any decade – and the jobless rate is at a 50-year low.But in 2019 employers added 600K less jobs than in 2018. That slower jobs growth is consistent with the […]