Editorials | Trump Slump .World

Stephen Roach: Coronavirus Fallout Could Trigger Global Recession

China’s Debt Defaults Are Picking Up Again

February 17, 2020 RealTrumpSlump 0

Investors have blindly, willfully, gleefully believed for far too long that, for some reason, any reason, there-must-be-a-reason, state-backing-reasons, Chinese companies are just unable to go […]

Live Coronavirus Updates

February 14, 2020 RealTrumpSlump 0

~ SPECIAL FEATURE ~ CORONAVIRUS LIVE UPDATES COVID-19 is the official name of the novel coronavirus pandemic threat now roiling China and spilling over to […]

Major Leading Indexes Flashing Orange

December 30, 2018 RealTrumpSlump 0

All three major slowdown/recession composite leading indexes TrumpSlump.World considers most worthy of tracking are now flashing Orange. Both of the U.S.-centric WLIs (RecessionAlert and ECRI), […]

Schedule for Week of July 5, 2020 July 4, 2020
This will be a light week for economic data.The focus will be on Job Openings and Weekly unemployment claims.----- Monday, July 6th -----10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for a reading of 50.0, up from 45.4.----- Tuesday, July 7th -----10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for […]
July 3 COVID-19 Test Results, Record Tests, Record Number Positive July 3, 2020
The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per […]
Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims July 3, 2020
A few comments:On a monthly basis, most analysts focus on initial unemployment claims for the BLS reference week of the employment report. For July, the BLS reference week will be July 12th through the 18th, and initial claims for that week will be released on Thursday, July 23rd.Note that a few states have not released […]
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declined July 3, 2020
Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.From Black Knight: Forbearances Reverse Course, See Largest Weekly Decline YetOverall, the number of active forbearance plans is down 104K from last week for the lowest weekly total active forbearances we’ve seen since the first week of […]
July 2 COVID-19 Test Results July 2, 2020
The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per […]
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 38.7% Year-over-year July 2, 2020
From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 27 JuneU.S. hotel performance data for the week ending 27 June showed another small rise from previous weeks and less severe year-over-year declines, according to STR.21-27 June 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):• Occupancy: 46.2% (-38.7%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$95.37 (-29.0%)• Revenue per […]

Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged July 2, 2020
Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index was virtually unchanged at 133.4, while the growth rate increased further to -8.7%.ECRI has long determined business cycle […]
Eurozone Recovery Prospects July 1, 2020
Following a sharp Covid-related contraction, this report describes what's next for Eurozone economic growth and inflation. We review the latest forward-looking cyclical data, with the context of longer-term structural forces.Included in this report:- Analysis of cycle dynamics based around recession- Insights from high-frequency data, comparing pre and post Covid-crisis readings- The latest pro...
International Inflation Update June 26, 2020
Today's release updates our full array of leading indexes for over 20 economies. Included in this report:- Analysis of the global inflation outlook with short, medium and longer term findings- Historical perspective of globalization eras, with fresh insights for what's next- Monetary policy's effect on growth and inflation for the U.S. Eurozone, Japan and China- […]