Editorials – Trump Slump World

Major Leading Indexes Flashing Orange

December 30, 2018 RealTrumpSlump 0

All three major slowdown/recession composite leading indexes TrumpSlump.World considers most worthy of tracking are now flashing Orange. Both of the U.S.-centric WLIs (RecessionAlert and ECRI), […]

FOMC Minutes: "A patient approach ... would likely remain appropriate for some time" May 22, 2019
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 30, 2019, and continued on Wednesday, May 1, 2019. A few excerpts: Participants discussed the potential policy implications of continued low inflation readings. Many participants viewed the recent dip in PCE inflation as likely to be transitory, and participants generally anticipated that a patient […]
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 44 states in April May 22, 2019
From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2019. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 46 states and decreased in four, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. In the past month, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased […]
AIA: "Slight rebound for architecture billings in April" May 22, 2019
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Slight rebound for architecture billings in AprilFollowing a sizable decrease in demand for design services in March, the April Architecture Billings Index (ABI) climbed back into positive territory according to a new report today from The American […]
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey May 22, 2019
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications increased 2.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 17, 2019.... The Refinance Index increased 8 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased […]
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes May 22, 2019
Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of April 30-May 1, 2019
Chemical Activity Barometer Increased Slightly in May May 21, 2019
Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Shows Third Monthly Gain in MayThe Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), rose 0.4 percent in May on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis, the third monthly gain […]

Business Cycle’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated May 20, 2019
To download the full presentation with detailed notes click here.At the recent 2019 Strategic Investment Conference ECRI explained why the business cycle’s demise has been greatly exaggerated.Our presentation focused on the proposition that the Fed has eliminated business cycles through quantitative easing and unconventional monetary policy.Conclusions:• The business cycle is alive and well, de...
Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down May 17, 2019
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticked down to 146.7 as its growth rate decreased to 0.2%. ECRI has long determined […]
2019 Strategic Investment Conference May 14, 2019
On May 14, Lakshman Achuthan will present at the 2019 Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference in Dallas, TX.
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up May 10, 2019
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged up to 146.9 while the growth rate ticked down to 0.8%. ECRI has long […]
ECRI in Las Vegas May 6, 2019
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji will be meeting with clients in Las Vegas on May 6.