Editorials – Trump Slump World

Major Leading Indexes Flashing Orange

December 30, 2018 RealTrumpSlump 0

All three major slowdown/recession composite leading indexes TrumpSlump.World considers most worthy of tracking are now flashing Orange. Both of the U.S.-centric WLIs (RecessionAlert and ECRI), […]

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Sharply Year-over-year due to Timing of Thanksgiving December 8, 2019
Note: Due to the timing of Thanksgiving, the occupancy rate was down sharply YoY last week. The rate was up sharply in the previous report.From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 30 Novemberhe U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 24-30 November 2019, […]
Schedule for Week of December 8, 2019 December 7, 2019
The key economic reports this week are November CPI and Retail Sales.The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.----- Monday, Dec 9th -----No major economic releases scheduled.----- Tuesday, Dec 10th -----6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November.----- Wednesday, Dec 11th -----7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will […]
AAR: November Rail Carloads down 7.5% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.4% YoY December 6, 2019
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Rail traffic continues to struggle because U.S. manufacturing is soft, trade disputes and the uncertainty they entail are ongoing, and economic growth abroad isn’t what it could be....In November 2019, total U.S. rail carloads were down 7.5% and total […]
Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up 3% YoY, Inventory down 4% YoY December 6, 2019
This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices stay the same for two months, still up from last year GLVAR housing statistics for […]
Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.6% to 2.0% December 6, 2019
From Goldman Sachs: [W]e lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar) [Dec 5 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Merrill Lynch This week, our ... 4Q GDP tracking estimate edged down by 0.1pp to 1.6% on weaker than expected residential spend in Oct. [Dec 6 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York […]
Comments on November Employment Report December 6, 2019
The headline jobs number at 266 thousand for November was above consensus expectations of 180 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 41 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%.Earlier: November Employment Report: 266,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment RateIn November, the year-over-year employment change was 2.204 million jobs including Census hires.Seasonal Retail […]

Weekly Leading Index Rises December 6, 2019
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 147.8 while the growth rate increased to 2.4%. ECRI has long determined business […]
U.S. Business Investment Outlook December 4, 2019
While corporate tax rate cuts can provide a short-term boost, cyclical forces are the true drivers of investment growth. This report shares cyclical updates to the key determinants of investment growth with knock-on effects for business spending and economic growth in the coming months.Covered in this report: - The current cyclical conditions dictating investment growth- […]
Weekly Leading Index Edges Down November 27, 2019
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index edged down to 146.8 as the growth rate rose to 1.7%. ECRI has long determined […]
Weekly Leading Index Rises November 22, 2019
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 147.0 as the growth rate increased to 1.1%. ECRI has long determined business […]
Update on Recession Risk and Rates November 20, 2019
Even as recession fears in the markets evaporate our analysis shows that recession risks remain active.This report includes:- Review of the employment cycle, including an update to our Cyclical Labor Conditions Index- Review of recent developments in market and non-market inputs to our array of leading indexes- Cyclical analysis of Fed rate expectationsReview our recent […]