Editorials – Trump Slump World

Major Leading Indexes Flashing Orange

December 30, 2018 RealTrumpSlump 0

All three major slowdown/recession composite leading indexes TrumpSlump.World considers most worthy of tracking are now flashing Orange. Both of the U.S.-centric WLIs (RecessionAlert and ECRI), […]

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book July 16, 2019
Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.260 million SAAR, down from 1.269 million SAAR in May.• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for […]
Phoenix Real Estate in June: Sales up 2.6% YoY, Active Inventory Down 4% YoY July 16, 2019
This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):1) Overall sales increased to 9,313 in June, up from 9,079 in June 2018. Sales were down 9.9% from May 2019 (last month), and up 2.6% […]
Fed Chair Powell: "Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era" July 16, 2019
From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis Era. Excerpt: In our baseline outlook, we expect growth in the United States to remain solid, labor markets to stay strong, and inflation to move back up and run near 2 percent. Uncertainties about this outlook have increased, however, particularly regarding trade developments and global […]
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Holds Firm in July" July 16, 2019
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 65 in July, up from 64 in June. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From NAHB: Builder Confidence Holds Firm in JulyBuilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point […]
Industrial Production Unchanged in June July 16, 2019
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity UtilizationIndustrial production was unchanged in June, as increases for both manufacturing and mining offset a decline for utilities. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, its second consecutive quarterly decrease. In June, manufacturing output advanced 0.4 percent. An […]
Retail Sales increased 0.4% in June July 16, 2019
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4 percent from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.4 percent from June 2018.From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $519.9 […]

Upcoming Interview July 17, 2019
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join Yahoo Finance's On the Move, Wednesday, July 17 between 12PM and 1PM ET.
China and G7 Inflation July 16, 2019
Key takeaways:- Global industrial growth downturn callECRI made the call in late 2017, before the trade war began, and before the Global PMIs turned down, because ECRI’s indexes lead the PMI. Two conclusions follow – one is that the slowdown is about much more than the trade war, as Chairman Powell finally acknowledged in his […]
Upcoming TV Interview July 15, 2019
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will be a guest on Bloomberg's Daybreak Asia on Monday, July 15 at 7:10 PM ET.
Weekly Leading Index Increases July 12, 2019
Click here to download ECRI WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate. On mobile, click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click "Full Site."__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 146.2 while the growth rate rose to -1.2%. ECRI has long determined business […]
Earning Growth Outlook Plunges July 11, 2019
On mobile, click here to view video interview.ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC to discuss what’s at stake for earnings as Q2 reporting gets underway.Click here to review our recent real-time track record.For information on our professional services please contact us.Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.