Canada, U.S. not headed for recession, but it’s really up to Trump: Scotiabank

Canada, U.S. not headed for recession, but it’s really up to Trump: Scotiabank

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, U.S. October 9, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Canada and the United States are headed for slower growth, not a full-blown recession. But more Trump-fuelled global drama could change that in an instant. That’s among the takeaways in an economic outlook report from Scotiabank titled “A Most Uncertain World.” Chief economist Jean-François Perrault holds the U.S. President’s trade policies and a “raft of other Trump-related developments” responsible for the current pull-back in global business spending and confidence. “Growth is a victim of the China-U.S. trade war,” he wrote in the report, which calls for uncertainty to rise through 2020 before gradually abating in 2021. “This view assumes that President Trump will seek some degree of stability in the lead-up to the 2020 Presidential election.” Trump is set to meet with China’s negotiating team led by vice-premier Liu He at the White House on Friday. It’s the thirteenth round of talks between representatives to the world’s two largest economies. U.S.-China relations have been increasingly strained in recent weeks, exacerbated by a tweet from an NBA general manager in support of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement, and new U.S. sanctions over China’s human rights record. Perrault notes the protracted trade spat is having a measurable impact on the American and Canadian economies. “We have formally included measures of uncertainty in our macro models for the U.S. and Canada, and find clear evidence that the rise in uncertainty under President Trump has […]

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